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皇冠电子游戏网址:US stocks flash crash triggered a global stock market body hot debate whether it can get rid of the shadow of US stocks

时间:2018/2/6 19:01:19  作者:  来源:  浏览:0  评论:0
内容摘要: On February 5, the United States stock market experienced the worst day in six and a half years, extending the downtrend of last Friday (Fe...

On February 5, the United States stock market experienced the worst day in six and a half years, extending the downtrend of last Friday (Feb. 2) and paying a heavy price of 1.25 trillion U.S. dollars. Fear of inflation will lead to interest rates rise, the stock market is busy selling. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 1,500 points, erasing all gains since 2018; the Dow closed down 1100 points, the largest single-day drop since the financial crisis in 2008; the S \u0026 P closed down 4.1%, the highest since August 2011 the largest single Decline in the day, the S \u0026 P 500 index stocks fell almost all, only two stocks were spared.

This performance has caused global investors screaring: Yields on the U.S. Treasury have risen, with almost full employment. The Fed tightens monetary policy, current account and fiscal deficits. This situation is almost exactly the same as in early 1987. October 19 that year, S \u0026 P 500 slumped 20% on the 1st, and triggered a global stock market crash.

US stocks crash Anticipated panic triggered a series of chain reactions, Feb. 5, Global stock markets Followed by the United States "Black Monday." The Nikkei index closed down more than 2.5%, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea stock index fell over 1%. European stocks opened lower across the board, falling for the sixth consecutive trading day. The European STOXX 600 index opened 0.8% lower, then quickly fell below the 200-day moving average. As many as 588 of the 600 stocks are falling, all the plates fell across the board, without a rise.

Hu Zhi Today opened low and trades, tumbled 3.35% and fell 3400 points to close at 3370.65 points. Gem plunged 5.34% to 3-year low, fell below 1600 Point mark, to close at 1598.12 points. Total turnover of 559.6 billion yuan in the two cities, the industry sector to sell almost all the way down, only the gold stocks buck the market stronger, the two cities over 400 stocks limit.

Institutional market: over-interpretation caused a stock market crash against the global reversal?

Hu Zhi hit more than two years of single-day drop record, the GEM index for 3 years a new low, the market has killed red eye, did not see any struggle, this is the typical multi-killed more. Although the large decline in the short term, but the stage still need to confirm the stop, so the operation, do not rush to bargain-hunting, continue to control a good part of the position, some high on the White Horse stocks and stocks rallied as far as possible lighten up, In order to collect funds to buy cheap chips!

stock market three guess tomorrow: vent their short kinetic energy extreme to create the conditions for the future A-share market trend

guess: short-term indicators locked in

today (February 6), affected by the outer disk crash across the board, stock index opened low today , Closing down 3.35%, fell 3400 points mark to close at 3370.65 points; the GEM mean plunge 5.34%, fell below the 3-year low, fell 1600 points to close at 1598.12 points. From the disk point of view, the industry sector almost all the slaughter, only the gold stocks against the market strength, the two cities over 400 stocks limit.

Qian Kun investment pointed out that the recent fall to break down the consolidation of the pattern of consolidation for several years, Powei opened a space for decline, triggering further withdrawal of funds, but only such a Powei to drop since the peak since 2015 Adjust to achieve a real bottom, that is not broken does not stand. For the next few years to take the market to create conditions. The current stage of operation only to continue holding stocks rebound.

Capital Conjecture: Extremely Disappearing Kinetic Energy

Central Bank suspends open market operations for the ninth consecutive trading day. Today, the central bank announced that currently banks total liquidity at a high level, can absorb the central bank repurchase maturity, cash injection and other factors, the central bank does not carry out open market operations today. The net withdrawal of 80 billion yuan on the day.

Reference calendar Year before and after the Spring Festival funds Fluctuation of the interest rate Most market participants believe that the funds are currently the most loose period. It is learned that the Spring Festival in 2018 is located in mid-February, two weeks behind 2017, which is close to the dates of the Spring Festival in 2015 and 2016. In contrast with the Spring Festival in previous years, under the background of the central bank's neutral attitude of ensuring liquidity and stability, it is expected that the capital shortage this year will be much better than that in previous years, and the probability of occurrence of extreme events will be relatively small.

The first card Investor believes that the gloomy face today mainly due to the impact of the external market plunge, but this does not mean that A shares have any special problems, A-share market in the long-term good support logic has not changed. From a technical analysis, the index has been drastically adjusted, the volume significantly enlarged, short of extreme kinetic energy catharsis, began to have financial attractiveness.

hot guess: a strong focus on dividend capacity stocks

from the news perspective, it was reported news of the 21st century economy, from over near the regulated community was informed, after several rounds of research, and information management new rules transitional period may be extended to six months By the end of 2019 (1.5 years + 0.5 years), the timing of the delivery is not yet clear, but the argument of "before and after the two sessions" is more prevalent.

Cod Investment believes it is advisable to focus on banks first, which is an important weapon for stabilizing the market. From a financial security point of view, the valuation of bank stocks will not continue sharply lower, the bank's ability to dividends at this time is also a very important advantage. Followed by a strong dividend 50 stocks. Emphasis on dividend, which is to follow the international market value of investment ideas, so in the future with the A-share internationalization accelerated, the dividend is the trend.

Spotlight: US stocks Flashback avalanche hit the largest decline in six and a half years

Wolf really came! US stocks staged a "chain massacre" global market fear once again suffer

In fact, the US stock market plummeted in the last two trading days is not surprising, after many financial chiefs have already issued a warning to the stock market, such as the Federal Reserve Chairman just left last week Jannet Yellen, Goldman Sachs , Greenspan, Nobel Prize winner Shearer, well-known big man Albert Edwards and more. Why stock market suddenly plunged? There may be many reasons, but perhaps the most important reason is that investors are worried that the "demons" of inflation may really have to "come out" and that the beautiful nonfarm report last Friday became "the last straw that crushed a camel ". (Source: FX168)

The United States Encounters a Nine-Year-Old Bull Quetzal Termination in the United States

One point that is often not mentioned in the explanation of the thriving stock market is that the yield on the U.S. Treasury declined last year. Instead, they are still within their narrowest half-century, allowing businesses to borrow at a low interest rate and forcing investors to look for riskier assets to meet their return targets. However, good non-farm employment growth and wage growth have broken the consolidation of government bond yields. The market believes that with the current economic environment, the Fed will certainly speed up the rate hike. What followed was that the upward rate of bond yields came in a hurry. (Source: 21st Century Business Herald)

US stock plunge causes global economic recovery to collapse

The Chinese market has generally failed to assess the sustained decline of the US stock market. After the US stock market plunged last Friday, China's stock market opened lower on Monday. It eventually closed up 0.73%, up 2.4% from the opening to the close. This shows that the Chinese market did not take the stock market crash last Friday Did not think there is any sustainability of the plunge in US stocks. Channel 789-89456_89_65473_9FICC The channel believes that the slump of US stocks needs to be carefully considered, which may trigger the butterfly effect of a global economic turn-down. (Source: WeChat public number Haiqing FICC channel)

Why the United States Department of bleeding?

US stocks plunged more than 4% triggered global market shock Summary of the latest interpretation

Tianfeng Securities macro team believes that the major US stock market adjustment will not be 1999 repeat, but the 1987 repeat. US stocks are now in a state of warm boiling bomb, do not know the explosion point of the bomb, but know the water temperature is rising. In the bubble, people always find various reasons to explain the reasonableness of the high valuation, which is called "this time is different." (Source: Securities Times)

Three major causes of the US stock plummeted

Analysis said the US stock plunged for three reasons: 1, the United States bond yields continued to rise; 2, the valuation of the major stock index has hit a record high; 3, the Federal Reserve Expectations of interest rates than expected, inflation expectations are heating up. A-share market impact or less.

What is the influence of A shares? For the A-share market, Yang Delong believes that the pace of the stock market in China and the United States is different from the US stock market has gone eight years, A shares have just climbed from the bottom, the high US stock market The plunge has a certain negative impact on the short-term trend of the A-share market, but it will not cause much impact on the medium-term trend. Historically, the A-share market is more determined by its own factors, rather than the external market. During the market turmoil, the blue-and-white stocks of the best performing stocks are highly defensive and will surely receive more financial attention. The warming of clientele may lead to the persistence of the "19-year-old" phenomenon. (Source: China Securities Journal)

Founder Securities: US stocks plummeted temporarily as a turning point in the A-share trends for catalysts

US stocks plunged overnight, Founder Securities research reports that since June last year to see more, as a turning point in the global economy An important catalyst to turn again to the air. The impact of the Fed's rate hike on the economy, that is, the first rate hike and the last rate hike, will be crucial in turning the U.S. economic trends and the global economic trends into a fundamental reversal of China's economic stabilization since 2016 , Which means that the current round of trend-oriented performance of the A-share market is over. At this moment, the turning point should not be reached yet. The U.S. economic indicators are still good. Therefore, the impact on the A-share market, do not think there is a turning point. (Source: Securities Times)

Global stock market plunge: Do not panic only short-term impact on A shares

US stocks to meet the "Black Monday", the global stock markets are not spared, as of press time, the Japanese stock market plunged more than 6% Singapore stock market plunged 3%, Hong Kong stocks plunged more than 4%, a decline in these markets are rare in recent years. In the precarious, China's blue-chip may still proudly stand. Tempest, Fang Xian hero character.

Li Xiao: US stocks do not panic downstream of the three causes of the crash

Li Xiao Ying Tai Securities chief economist, said US stocks downward do not panic, the three causes of the crash: first, the valuation of stocks in the level before the crash, Nasdaq The P / E ratio is 60x and the Dow is trading at 21.7x. If it is PB, the Nasdaq is 3.82x, the S \u0026 P is 3.26x, and the DJIA is 3.9x, which is also high in the global stock markets. Relative to the card 50 to see the price-earnings ratio was 11.5 times, PB was 1.35 times, and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 P / E was 14 times, pb was 1.65 times, so the overall situation, the A shares of the current situation with the blue chips than US stocks, or US stocks higher; the second plunge reason is that the United States is facing the pressure to raise interest rates. Ten-year debt rose to 2.84%, which is also a hike in the history of interest rates. The third reason is that the U.S. stock market has risen nearly 10 years. There is still not such a decent challenge. And we see that the vix index, that is to say the volatility of the entire market, should be said to hit a record low, this should be said to be a major adjustment coming. In the precarious, China's blue-chip may still proudly stand. Tempest, Fang Xian hero character.

Water Skin: One Foot on US Financial Crisis Crash

2.7% Tight point that the U.S. bond market crisis led to the US stock market and caused the US stock market to fall. At two o'clock on January 29, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury broke through 2.7%. What's even more dangerous is that if the Fed can not stop the Treasury yields from rising further, the next level is 3%. As soon as it approaches 4%, the sell-off in the U.S. bond market and the stock market will inundate the entire financial market. "Black Thursday "The stock market crash will repeat itself.

Frontier open source Yang Delong: US stocks plunge due to rising too fast on the A-share trend only short-term impact The main reason for the US stock plunge First US stocks rose too fast in January, the monthly gains hit a few decades, three The valuation of the stock index is already at a historic high with a certain amount of bubble. When the U.S. stock market rose sharply for eight years in a row, it accumulated a large number of profit taking profits. As soon as there were signs and weaknesses, the funds fled madly and took profits, causing a plunge. Second, the market worried that interest rates and inflation will rise too fast. The Fed rate hike in March was basically fixed and the government may raise interest rates three times a year. The recent rapid rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rate coupled with investors' concerns about accelerating inflation led to a sharp rise in the U.S. stock market fall. We can not confirm that the US stock market has peaked yet, or is a drastic adjustment. Generally speaking, there will be at least a few major bullish markets over and over again, and the first large-scale adjustment will often come to nothing. The pace of the stock market in China and the United States is different. The US stock market has gone eight years of bull market. A-share market has just climbed from the bottom. The plunge in the US stock market has a negative impact on the short-term trend of the A-share market. However, Too much impact. Historically, the A-share market is more determined by its own factors, rather than the external market. During the market turmoil, the blue-and-white stocks of the best performing stocks are highly defensive and will surely receive more financial attention. The warming of clientele may lead to the persistence of the "19-year-old" phenomenon. Deng Haiqing: a phrase into a 谶! US stocks tumble caused global economic recovery to collapse

Our main evidence has two: First, the US stock price-earnings ratio, and the second is the proportion of direct family holdings in the United States.

From the US stock price-earnings ratio perspective: From the valuation point of view, the US stock price-earnings ratio has exceeded the financial crisis in 2007 before the third-highest in history, second only to the Internet bubble in 2000 and 1929 before the Great Recession. As the U.S. economy picks up and corporate profits rise, the value of U.S. stocks is indeed rising. However, the price rise is even faster, and there have been major overdrafts and bubbles. After nine years of US stock bull market, the price-earnings ratio of the US stock market reached 32.1, much higher than the average of 20.3 since 1951, only 28.3 in 2007, which is now at the third highest position in history.

From the proportion of direct shareholdings of residents: From the perspective of the proportion of residents in the allocation of assets, there is a huge risk that universal stocks, overcrowding and over-expectation in the United States have great expectations. The proportion of U.S. residents in direct allocation of shares (the direct share ownership of U.S. residents / the scale of financial assets of U.S. residents) in July 2017 has surpassed that in 2007 and may even have been higher than in 2000 by January 2018, and crowded transactions are very clear. As of July 2017, the allocation of residents has reached 32.5%, much higher than the average of 26% in 2007, only 28.9%; US stocks soared 20% from the end of 2017 to early 2018, which means that residents directly configure the stock The ratio will reach about 40%, which is even higher than 36% in 2000.

Sun Jianbo: US stocks hit a black Monday 2018 more complex

Comments from all walks of life on February 5 US Black Monday. The tone is twofold: First, a stock market crash is unlikely to hurt the U.S. economy unless the decline is worse; second, it will not be possible to repeat 1987 unless the economic situation deteriorates.

Guan Qingyou: Global plunge is asset bubble burst yet to find new growth point

For the global plunge, Minsheng Securities Vice President, Institute of Management Guan Qingyou said the global stock market crash, the asset bubble burst. The factor of the surface is the fierce collision between the financial cycle and the economic cycle, which occurs in the process of non-equivalent contraction and expansion. The underlying reason is that the world still has not found a new growth point, unable to achieve the conversion of old and new kinetic energy. The problem is that the new seam 8 spell is different from the past. The economy has prospered between the two past eights and many classes have benefited. Now between the two 8, a dream, white busy. The rich are richer, the poor are poorer, the society is torn apart, and the group is anxious.


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